Designing complex technical systems considering uncertainty factors

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.20535/2521-1943.2025.9.1(104).316582

Keywords:

Systems engineering, project management, complex technical system, uncertainty, project management and systems engineering processes, science-intensive product

Abstract

A characteristic feature of projects aimed at creating complex technical systems (CTS) is a high level of uncertainty. Failure to account for uncertainty, especially in the early stages of project development, when uncertainty is at its peak, increases risks and raises costs for resolving unforeseen issues in later project phases. This can significantly impact the achievement of the project's final goals. Therefore, the problem of comprehensively addressing uncertainty in project management and systems engineering processes during CTS development is highly relevant and requires thorough investigation.
 The primary objective of this research is to analyze the most significant approaches and assess the state of the issue regarding the consideration of uncertainty factors inherent in key activities aimed at creating CTS – namely, project management and systems engineering. This will enable the development of more effective strategies for managing uncertainty in CTS creation.
 The research methodology included organizing and implementing expert evaluation procedures to identify the most significant uncertainty factors in CTS development. Additionally, a qualitative and quantitative analysis of the composition of uncertainty factors was conducted for various types of activities – project management and systems engineering  – and the dynamics of uncertainty growth were evaluated depending on the degree of CTS uniqueness for different types of projects.
 The research identified the most significant uncertainty factors characteristic of project management and systems engineering activities in CTS creation. The nature of the dynamics of uncertainty growth in relation to the uniqueness of various project types was also determined.
The conducted research has provided new insights and identified certain trends aimed at improving the processes of project management and systems engineering in the development of CTS.

References

  1. INCOSE Systems Engineering Handbook: A Guide for System Life Cycle Processes and Activities, 5th Edition. Wiley, 2023, 368 p.
  2. G. A. Krivov and K. O. Zvorykin, "Priority – science-intensive and high-tech products", Technological systems, no. 3, pp. 7-13, 2005.
  3. A. Kosyakov, W. Sweet, S. Seymour and S. Biemer, System Engineering. Principles and Practice. Moscow: DMK Press, 2014, 624 p.
  4. G. O. Kryvov and V. M. Shulepov, "How to make money for funding science and for what the society needs high-tech industry", Technological systems, no. 68/3, pp. 9-11, 2014. Available: http://technological-systems.com/index.php/Home/article/view/228.
  5. A. E. Kononyuk, Systemology. General theory of systems. Kyiv: Osvita Ukrayiny, 2014.
  6. ISO/IEC/IEEE 15288:2015. Systems and software engineering ‒ System life cycle processes.
  7. A guide to the project management body of knowledge (PMBOK guide), Sixth edition. Newtown Square, PA: Project Management Institute, 2017, 711 p.
  8. G. O. Kryvov, K. O. Zvorykin and S. G. Kryvova, Project management in knowledge-intensive mechanical engineering. Kyiv: Igor Sikorsky "Kyiv Polytechnic Institute", 2019, 224 p.
  9. G. O. Kryvov, S. G. Kryvova, K. O. Zvorykin and O. E. Zubanov, Fundamentals of systems engineering. Kyiv: Igor Sikorsky "Kyiv Polytechnic Institute", 2022, 322 p.
  10. NATO Standard AAP-20. NATO Programme Management Framework (NATO Life Cycle Model), October 2015.
  11. NATO Standard: AAP-48. NATO System Life Cycle Stages and Processes, March 2013.
  12. DSTU V-P 15.004:2019. System of development and delivery of weapons and military equipment for production. Stages of the life cycle of weapons and military equipment.
  13. C. Chapman and S. Ward, Project Risk Management: Processes, Techniques and Insights, 2nd ed. Chichester, England: John Wiley & Sons, 2003, 408 p.
  14. H. Kerzner, Project Management: A Systems Approach to Planning, Scheduling, and Controlling, 12th ed. Hoboken, New Jersey: Wiley, 2017, 814 p.
  15. D. A. Pritchard and A. J. MacPherson, Industrial strategies of the world's leading aircraft manufacturers. Taylor & Francis, 2004.
  16. S. S. Kramer and M. J. Rogoff, Waste-to-Energy Project Development. William Andrew, 1999.
  17. B. Flyvbjerg, N. Bruzelius and W. Rothengatter, Megaprojects and Risk: An Anatomy of Ambition, 1st ed. Cambridge University Press, 2003, 207 p. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107050891.
  18. NASA Systems Engineering Handbook, NASA/SP-2007-6105 Rev1. Washington: National Aeronautics and Space Administration, 2007, 340 p.
  19. C. S. Tang, J. D. Zimmerman and J. I. Nelson, “Managing New Product Development and Supply Chain Risks: The Boeing 787 Case”, Supply Chain Forum: An International Journal, vol. 10, no. 2, pp. 74-86, 2009. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/16258312.2009.11517219.
  20. N. Gil and S. Beckman, Airbus A380: Turbulence Ahead. Harvard Business Review, 2007.
  21. D. Cleden, Managing Project Uncertainty. London: Routledge, 2017, 127 p. DOI: https://doi.org/10.4324/9781315249896.
  22. O. Perminova, M. Gustafsson and K. Wikström, “Defining uncertainty in projects – a new perspective”, International Journal of Project Management, vol. 26, no. 1, pp. 73-79, 2008. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2007.08.005.
  23. M. T. Pich, C. H. Loch and A. De Meyer, “On uncertainty, ambiguity, and complexity in project management”, Management Science, vol. 48, no. 8, pp. 1008-1023, 2002. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.48.8.1008.163.
    |
  24. A. De Meyer, C. H. Loch and M. T. Pich, “Managing project uncertainty: from variation to chaos”, IEEE Engineering Management Review, vol. 30, no. 3, pp. 91-98, 2002. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1109/EMR.2002.1032403.
    |
  25. M. Loosemore, J. Raftery, C. Reilly and D. Higgon, Risk Management in Projects. London: Routledge, 2012, 268 p. DOI: https://doi.org/10.4324/9780203963708.
  26. B. S. Blanchard and W. J. Fabrycky, Systems Engineering and Analysis (5th ed.). New Jersey: Pearson, 2010, 800 p.
  27. S. D. Eppinger and T. R. Browning, Design Structure Matrix Methods and Applications. The MIT Press, 2012. DOI: https://doi.org/10.7551/mitpress/8896.001.0001.
  28. O. L. de Weck, D. Roos, C. L. Magee and S. Cooper, Engineering Systems: Meeting Human Needs in a Complex Technological World. The MIT Press, 2011. DOI: https://doi.org/10.7551/mitpress/8799.001.0001.
  29. E. de Rocquigny, N. Devictor and S. Tarantola, Uncertainty in Industrial Practice: A Guide to Quantitative Uncertainty Management. Wiley, 2008, 339 p. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/9780470770733.

Downloads

Published

2025-03-18

How to Cite

[1]
S. Kryvova, “Designing complex technical systems considering uncertainty factors”, Mech. Adv. Technol., vol. 9, no. 1(104), pp. 32–39, Mar. 2025.

Issue

Vol. 9 No. 1(104) (2025)

Section

Aviation Systems and Technologies

License

Copyright (c) 2025 Світлана Кривова

Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

The ownership of copyright remains with the Authors.
 
Authors may use their own material in other publications provided that the Journal is acknowledged as the original place of publication and National Technical University of Ukraine “Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute” as the Publisher.

Authors who publish with this journal agree to the following terms:

  1. Authors retain copyright and grant the journal right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under CC BY 4.0 that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgement of the work's authorship and initial publication in this journal.

  2. Authors are able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the non-exclusive distribution of the journal's published version of the work (e.g., post it to an institutional repository or publish it in a book), with an acknowledgement of its initial publication in this journal.

  3. Authors are permitted and encouraged to post their work online (e.g., in institutional repositories or on their website) prior to and during the submission process, as it can lead to productive exchanges, as well as earlier and greater citation of published work